Wednesday, April 2, 2003

America's economic future

I just watched CNBC, and there are some bad news for the long-term future of America.

  • Jobless claims are up - most states have lost close to 10% of their manufacturing jobs to Mexico and China
    • The effects NAFTA and WTO are beginning to surface
  • CNBC cited "the cost of pension plans" as a big problem for companies,
    • In order to get profitability back to "normal" (which is in the double-digits), they're going to need to adress the "issue"
  • Tech jobs are also being exported to India, China, Mexico, and Russia
  • American exports are not doing too great despite the weakening dollar
    • An analyst on the show suggested that perhaps America should have a policy towards a weaker dollar
      • But isn't this the kind of policy the commentators pointed fingers at in Japan?
        • In addition to it causing further recession like it did in Japan, a weaker dollar will have more serious effect, because America has a huge trade deficit, and won't be able to afford its imports.

Other bad news aside from what CNBC said today:

  • Credit card debt is still at an all-time high, which spells trouble if the recession sticks around
  • Deficit spending is way up, which again takes money out of the pockets of people in the future
  • A large chunk the money spent by the government currently is funnelled to corporations, whose main focus is overseas (such as the reconstruction of Iraq)
  • My overall conclusion is that the future of the American economy is squarely in the hands of large corporations, but there is a conflict of interest
    • The comapanies would like for the domestic economy to improve so that the consumption increases
    • However, they would like even more to "cut their costs" by
      • exporting jobs overseas and
        • There's very little that's stopping them with NAFTA and WTO in place
      • undermining labor even further.
        • There's very little stopping them here as well, because
          • The labor unions are Weak / non-existent
          • The government is mainly on the side of big business has not been strict on enforcing international labor standards
    • America is still a rich country with rich people, so there is a long way down for the economy to go
    • The next target in the class war is the lower-middle class, which is going to be wiped out in the next 10 years.

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